And by the middle of the 21st century, the United States is likely to have more Muslims 2. Several countries are projected to have a different religious majority in than they did in But Nigeria also will continue to have a very large Christian population.
Indeed, Nigeria is projected to have the third-largest Christian population in the world by , after the United States and Brazil. As of , the largest religious group in France, New Zealand and the Netherlands is expected to be the unaffiliated. While many people have offered predictions about the future of religion, these are the first formal demographic projections using data on age, fertility, mortality, migration and religious switching for multiple religious groups around the world.
The projections cover eight major groups: Buddhists, Christians, Hindus, Jews, Muslims, adherents of folk religions, adherents of other religions and the unaffiliated see Appendix C: Defining the Religious Groups.
Because censuses and surveys in many countries do not provide information on religious subgroups — such as Sunni and Shia Muslims or Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox Christians — the projections are for each religious group as a whole. Data on subgroups of the unaffiliated are also unavailable in many countries.
As a result, separate projections are not possible for atheists or agnostics. The projection model was developed in collaboration with researchers in the Age and Cohort Change Project at IIASA, who are world leaders in population projections methodology. The model uses an advanced version of the cohort-component method typically employed by demographers to forecast population growth.
It starts with a population of baseline age groups, or cohorts, divided by sex and religion. Each cohort is projected into the future by adding likely gains immigrants and people switching in and by subtracting likely losses deaths, emigrants and people switching out year by year.
For more details, see the Methodology. In the process of gathering input data and developing the projection model, the Pew Research Center previously published reports on the current size and geographic distribution of major religious groups, including Muslims , Christians and several other faiths An initial set of projections for one religious group, Muslims, was published in , although it did not attempt to take religious switching into account.
Some social theorists have suggested that as countries develop economically, more of their inhabitants will move away from religious affiliation. While that has been the general experience in some parts of the world, notably Europe, it is not yet clear whether it is a universal pattern.
Rather, the projections extend the recently observed patterns of religious switching in all countries for which sufficient data are available 70 countries in all. And the projections assume that people gradually are living longer in most countries. These and other key input data and assumptions are explained in detail in Chapter 1 and the Methodology Appendix A. Since religious change has never previously been projected on this scale, some cautionary words are in order.
Population projections are estimates built on current population data and assumptions about demographic trends, such as declining birth rates and rising life expectancies in particular countries. The projections are what will occur if the current data are accurate and current trends continue.
But many events — scientific discoveries, armed conflicts, social movements, political upheavals, natural disasters and changing economic conditions, to name just a few — can shift demographic trends in unforeseen ways.
That is why the projections are limited to a year time frame, and subsequent chapters of this report try to give a sense of how much difference it could make if key assumptions were different. For more details on the possible impact of religious switching in China, see Chapter 1.
Finally, readers should bear in mind that within every major religious group, there is a spectrum of belief and practice. The projections are based on the number of people who self-identify with each religious group, regardless of their level of observance.
What it means to be Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist, Jewish or a member of any other faith may vary from person to person, country to country, and decade to decade. These population projections were produced by the Pew Research Center as part of the Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures project, which analyzes religious change and its impact on societies around the world.
Conrad Hackett was the lead researcher and primary author of this report. Alan Cooperman served as lead editor. Anne Shi and Juan Carlos Esparza Ochoa made major contributions to data collection, storage and analysis. Bill Webster created the graphics and Stacy Rosenberg and Ben Wormald oversaw development of the interactive data presentations and the Global Religious Futures website.
Marcin Stonawski wrote the cutting-edge software used for these projections and led the collection and analysis of European data.
Additionally, Guy Abel at the Vienna Institute of Demography helped construct the country-level migration flow data used in the projections. Over the past six years, a number of former Pew Research Center staff members also played critical roles in producing the population projections. The country with the largest number about million is Indonesia, where Learn about Muslims and Islam through four short lessons delivered to your inbox every other day. Sign up now! Pew Research Center uses an array of surveys, census reports, population registers and other data sources to estimate numbers of Muslims and other religious groups around the world, the goal being to count all groups and people who self-identify with a particular religion.
The figures presented here are as of Looking ahead, the Center estimates that by the number of Muslims worldwide will grow to 2. Just 0. In the U. This is Interestingly, while the countries listed above have the most Muslims overall, many smaller countries have a higher concentration of Muslim citizens.
The division between Sunni and Shi'a is nearly as old as Islam itself, having stemmed from a disagreement in AD about who should succeed Muhammad as the leader of the faith. In the centuries since that time, additional theological differences have arisen. These are known as the five pillars of Islam. Muslim Majority Countries Islam is the world's second-largest religion Earth is home to more than 1. The Five Pillars of Islam: Shahada: One must recite the shahadah, declaring one's faith in God and belief in Muhammad Salat: One must pray five times per day: at dawn, noon, afternoon, sunset, and evening, while facing toward the Ka'bah, a mosque in Mecca Zakat: One must give to those in need Sawm: One must fast from dawn to sunset during Ramadan Hajj: One must make a pilgrimage to Mecca at least once during a person's lifetime if possible.
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